Estimation Techniques

Knows main estimation techniques: story points, t-shirt sizing, planning poker. Participates in estimation sessions. Understands the difference between estimate and commitment.

Knows basic estimation techniques: story points, T-shirt sizing, planning poker. Participates in estimation sessions and understands the connection between estimates and technical risks. Helps the team define acceptance criteria for estimation.

Conducts estimation sessions with the team. Uses reference-based estimation and historical data. Creates delivery forecasts accounting for uncertainty.

Independently facilitates estimation sessions considering technical complexity. Applies reference-based estimation and three-point estimation. Analyzes past estimate accuracy for calibration and factors technical debt into estimates.

Applies probabilistic estimation (Monte Carlo, cone of uncertainty). Builds a culture of estimation transparency. Uses the #NoEstimates approach where applicable.

Builds estimation system for large initiatives with technical dependencies. Applies Monte Carlo simulation for timeline forecasting. Decomposes epics considering architectural risks and infrastructure work.

Standardizes estimation practices for the division. Trains PMs and tech leads on estimation techniques. Defines when to use estimates vs forecasts.

Defines estimation framework for the division, including risk-adjusted estimation. Trains TPMs and Tech Leads on complex technical project estimation techniques. Introduces probabilistic forecasting at portfolio level.

Defines the approach to planning and estimation at the organizational level. Establishes capacity planning processes for the product portfolio.

Shapes enterprise approach to estimation and forecasting. Defines estimation standards for programs with 20+ teams. Integrates estimation data with capacity planning and budgeting at organizational level.